AGP Executive Report

EU Sanctions Spillover: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions proposal would add 50 companies tied to multiple countries, including Kazakhstan, potentially complicating an EU–India trade deal that both sides are trying to ratify by mid-July. Digital Economy Push: Alatau City in Kazakhstan signed a memorandum with the Solana Foundation to bring blockchain training, startup support, and digital infrastructure into its innovation hub plans. Financial Oversight Modernization: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan discussed using AI and advanced digital tools in financial supervision, including data dashboards and stress-testing systems. Regional Trade & Investment: Kazakhstan and Sweden held talks on expanding trade, cutting technical barriers, and boosting business-to-business links, including cooperation between QazTrade and Swedish trade bodies. Jobs & Wages Plan: Kazakhstan’s 2026–2029 government plan targets a wage-gap problem and aims for up to 240,000 quality jobs annually through minimum wage and civil service pay measures plus dual education and microloans. Border Security: Kazakhstan’s Senate moved to ratify a Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan agreement setting procedures for border management and preventing border incidents. Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. held its first in-person Critical Minerals Dialogue with all five Central Asian states in Astana, seeking to turn tentative deals into implementation. Industrial-Mining Ties: Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan discussed expanding industrial and mining cooperation, with a focus on strategic minerals and private-sector value-chain projects. Foreign Travel Advisory: Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry said Iran is not recommended for travel by Kazakh citizens.

EU Sanctions & Trade: The EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package—announced June 9—would include entities based in India and could complicate ratification of an EU-India trade deal, with unanimous approval needed by July 15. Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. held its first in-person Critical Minerals Dialogue with all five Central Asian states in Astana, pushing implementation of financing and partnerships as Washington seeks to reduce dependence on China. Border Security: Kazakhstan’s Senate moved to ratify a Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan agreement on the state border regime, setting rules for crossings, border markers, and incident prevention. Anti-Corruption & Governance: Kazakhstan is advancing new anti-corruption measures and broader reform steps aimed at attracting investment and diversifying the economy. Jobs & Incomes: The government’s 2026–2029 plan targets wage gaps and aims to generate up to 240,000 quality jobs annually while improving social support and legal safeguards. Industrial Push: Kazakhstan plans major geological exploration investment of about $470mn for 2026–2028, alongside expanded mining and critical-minerals cooperation with partners including Saudi Arabia and Sweden. Foreign Travel Advisory: Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry advised citizens not to travel to Iran amid security concerns.

EU-Russia Sanctions Spillover: The EU’s 21st sanctions package against Russia would add entities based in India and also lists firms tied to Kazakhstan and other countries, raising questions for the EU–India trade deal that Brussels and New Delhi finalized in January. Border Security: Kazakhstan’s Senate ratified the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan agreement on the state border regime, setting rules for border maintenance, crossings, flights, and incident prevention. Diplomacy in Astana: Kazakh FM met a French envoy to discuss strategic partnership, while Kazakhstan and Canada pledged deeper political, trade, and economic ties. UN Funding for SDGs: Kazakhstan will annually allocate $3 million (2025–2029) to a UN regional center in Almaty to support sustainable development and climate resilience. Jobs and Wages Plan: The government’s 2026–2029 program targets a wage-gap fix and expects up to 240,000 quality jobs annually. Mining Push: Kazakhstan plans about $470 million in geological exploration (2026–2028) and is advancing Kashagan gas processing capacity projects. Anti-Corruption Overhaul: New measures expand criminal liability and strengthen conflict-of-interest rules, including tighter restrictions for relatives in the same agency. Regional Security Club: Kazakhstan marked the SCO’s 25 years, highlighting Astana’s role in shaping positions and new cooperation formats.

State Security Expansion: President Tokayev signed a law expanding the State Security Service’s powers, allowing officers to use weapons without warning in anti-terror operation zones, effective 60 days after publication. Sports & Politics: Chess star Bibisara Asaubayeva pushed back on the Ministry of Sports, citing Tokayev’s line that Kazakhstan’s key resource is knowledge and arguing chess should be treated as strategic “intellectual capital.” Justice Update: Kazakhstan’s Interior Ministry says no suspects have been identified in the July 2024 Almaty death case of student Aknar Gulstan; materials were sent to China via an international investigative request. Regional Cooperation: Kazakhstan hosted a CIS customs heads meeting focused on digitalization, AI in customs work, and stronger anti-smuggling coordination. Critical Minerals Diplomacy: At Astana’s U.S.-Kazakhstan critical minerals roundtable, Kazakhstan’s U.S. negotiator urged turning the minerals agenda into concrete projects, processing, and resilient supply chains. Energy & Industry: Kazakhstan’s 12th hydrocarbon licensing round offers 30 subsoil plots for a July 29 electronic auction, with signature bonuses starting around $30,000. Transport Links: FlyArystan plans a new Urgench–Almaty route from September 3, 2026, twice weekly.

Critical Minerals Diplomacy: Kazakhstan used the Astana Mining & Metallurgy Congress to push a shift from raw exports to processing and technology, with U.S. officials saying Washington is moving from talks to execution and Kazakhstan’s U.S. negotiator calling for practical projects, processing capacity, and resilient supply chains. Rare Earth Deal: Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia signed an MOU on cooperation across the mining value chain, with a focus on rare earths and higher value-added production. Industrial Strategy: Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov framed critical minerals as central to a new industrial era, linking 2025 growth to investment, technology, and downstream development. Water Security: Kazakhstan and France advanced a master plan effort to preserve Lake Balkhash amid climate-driven water stress. Education Oversight: Kazakhstan’s Deputy PM said more than 700 errors and comments have been found in school textbooks and educational materials, including factual and illustration issues. Finance & Ratings: Eurasian Development Bank received BBB long-term and A2 short-term foreign currency ratings from CI Ratings with a stable outlook. Energy Transition Warning: A new EDB report warns Central Asia’s renewable buildout could raise electricity costs if grid, storage, and market reforms lag.

Budget Oversight: Finance Minister Madi Takiyev says Kazakhstan’s public debt is manageable—36.4 trillion tenge, 22.8% of GDP—while lawmakers criticize rising refinancing of past liabilities. Energy Security: The Energy Ministry rejects any expected gasoline shortage, citing 36 days of reserves despite disruptions in Russia. Foreign Policy & Diplomacy: President Tokayev met US envoy Sergio Gora, signaling intent to deepen the expanded strategic partnership and critical-minerals cooperation ahead of a planned meeting with Trump in Miami. Parliament & Treaties: The Majilis ratified a Kazakhstan–Kyrgyzstan deal allowing free use of embassy buildings and ambassador residences for 49 years. Rule of Law & Media Freedom: KazTAG editor-in-chief Amir Kassenov’s closed trial is being challenged by his lawyer as potentially censorship; he also says mediation talks with Freedom Finance are possible. Industrial Strategy: The government reiterates a shift toward deep processing and high-value-added production. Water & Infrastructure: Kazakhstan reports 676.7 billion tenge invested in the water sector over two years, with major canal works and expanded water-saving irrigation. Regional Trade & Investment: Talks with South Korea focus on industry, energy, and nuclear cooperation, including small modular reactors. International Cooperation on Data Privacy: Kazakhstan gained observer status at the Council of Europe Convention 108 committee, aiming to align personal data protection with global standards.

Investment Climate Overhaul: Kazakhstan will appoint regional investment prosecutors and set up a pre-trial dispute settlement platform under the Prosecutor General’s Office to resolve investor-state disagreements before they reach court. Transport Digitization: Kazakhstan is pushing more online tools for transit and logistics—electronic documents and smarter monitoring—to cut border delays and speed freight across China–Central Asia–Caspian–Europe routes. Caspian Connectivity: Kuryk (Kazakhstan) and Makhachkala (Russia) agreed to launch a vehicle ferry service across the Caspian to diversify cargo flows and strengthen year-round transit. US–Kazakhstan Minerals Push: The U.S. opened a new C5+1 critical minerals dialogue in Astana, focusing on exploration, mining, processing, and supply chains. Legal Reform on Harassment: Kazakhstan is considering up to five years in prison for repeat stalking offenders, after lawmakers said current penalties don’t distinguish one-off harassment from systematic stalking. Sports & Public Safety: A “spidercam” malfunction during a Hungary–Kazakhstan friendly narrowly missed a cameraman, briefly halting play. Education & Sport: Kazakhstan signed a memorandum to embed judo development within higher education, linking universities with the International Judo Federation and partners. EU Sanctions Watch: A proposed EU 21st Russia package includes potential new restrictions affecting companies in Kazakhstan and other third countries.

Energy Diplomacy: Kazakhstan says it is ready to boost Russian gas transit to Uzbekistan, with talks ongoing and last year’s flow topping 4 bcm to Uzbekistan (and about 500 mln to Kyrgyzstan). EU Sanctions Pressure: The EU announced its 21st Russia sanctions package, including a proposed visa ban for former Russian combatants and new export controls tied to drones, banks, oil traders/refineries, and crypto operators—naming firms linked to Kazakhstan among others. Education & Corruption: A public opinion survey flags corruption in Kazakhstan’s education system (31.5%) and weak teacher qualifications (30.8%) as top barriers to secondary education development. Public Health: Kazakhstan’s health ministry plans tighter control on dispensing antibacterial drugs as antimicrobial resistance and unprescribed antibiotic use—online included—remain a growing concern. Civil Service & Regional Governance: President Tokayev met Abai Region akim Berik Uali, reviewing 2025 socio-economic results and early 2026 investment and infrastructure progress. International Outlook: Kazakhstan marks June 10’s International Day for Dialogue Among Civilizations amid a strained global environment.

Health Policy: Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Health says it will tighten control over dispensing antibacterial drugs under a roadmap running to 2027, citing rampant antibiotic use (including without prescriptions and via online sales) and rising antimicrobial resistance. EU Sanctions & Trade: The EU is preparing its 21st Russia sanctions package, including a proposed visa ban on former Russian combatants and new export controls hitting drone-related firms and metals/alloys supply chains; Kazakhstan-linked entities are named among those facing restrictions. Foreign Policy & Diplomacy: Astana and Washington reaffirmed strategic cooperation after high-level talks in Astana, focusing on investment, innovation/AI, critical minerals, and transport/logistics. Regional Economy & Investment: China has overtaken Russia as the top direct foreign investor in Central Asia, with Chinese investment in the region topping $35bn over the past decade. Public Administration & Reform: Kazakhstan’s party landscape is entering a decisive week as Amanat prepares a congress (June 12) and the newly registered Adilet party plans one (June 14), fueling speculation about a reshuffle ahead of the Kurultai transition. Tourism & Society: Kazakhstan reported tourism tax revenues of 630bn tenge in 2025 (up 18%) and $2.9bn in foreign tourist spending, alongside plans to expand access to Baikonur for visitors.

E-commerce Customs Overhaul: Kazakhstan will introduce new rules for purchases on foreign marketplaces, keeping the €200 duty-free threshold but creating a separate “e-commerce goods” category with a new declaration system handled by e-commerce operators; for orders above €200, a 5% customs duty and 16% VAT will apply, replacing the current unified 15% charge. Disaster Housing Insurance Dropped: The government removed a draft law on mandatory housing insurance against natural disasters from its 2026 legislative plan, delaying expected submission to parliament. Cloud-Seeding Debate: Kazakhstan’s cloud-seeding experiment, trialed with UAE support, is drawing regional concern after Kyrgyz officials warned artificial rainfall could affect neighboring ecosystems. Payroll Tax Automation: A new one-click service will let employers calculate and pay payroll taxes and social contributions automatically via the taxpayer’s account, aiming to cut administrative load for small and medium businesses. Regional Diplomacy: Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Georgia signed the Istanbul Declaration, pledging deeper trilateral cooperation and highlighting the Middle Corridor and Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway as key connectivity projects. Nuclear-Test-Ban Meeting: A high-level CTBT anniversary event in Ashgabat included Kazakhstan’s diplomatic mission, underscoring Central Asia’s role in non-proliferation.

Armenia-Russia Fallout: Kazakhstan President Tokayev congratulated Nikol Pashinyan after Armenia’s parliamentary vote, signaling continued Astana engagement as Kremlin influence weakens. Trilateral Diplomacy: Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Georgia signed the Istanbul Declaration, pledging deeper cooperation on politics, trade, security, energy and connectivity. Trade Policy Shock: The US USTR proposed new Section 301 forced-labor tariffs covering 60 economies, with Kazakhstan’s region facing wider compliance and supply-chain pressure. Justice Reform: Tokayev says administrative court reforms are paying off, with citizens and businesses winning nearly 60% of cases against state bodies. Energy & Markets: OPEC+ agreed to raise July output by 188,000 bpd; analysts warn the physical impact may be limited amid Hormuz disruptions. Nuclear Cooperation: Kazakhstan and South Korea advanced talks on a nuclear energy memorandum, including possible SMR collaboration and workforce training. Water Security: Kazakhstan reported channeling 6.16bn cubic meters into the Caspian Sea since January, as regional water decline concerns grow. Agriculture & Economy: Kazakhstan completed the 2026 sowing campaign (23.8m hectares) and secured WOAH FMD-free status to boost livestock export prospects. Finance Stability: The National Bank cut the base rate to 17%, urging no major tenge shift as inflation cools.

Investor Protection Push: Kazakhstan’s Investor Rights Protection Committee (under the Prosecutor General’s Office) says it oversees 3,000+ projects worth over 100 trillion tenge and has helped 600+ investors since early 2026, aiming to shield firms from unlawful decisions and administrative pressure. Judicial Accountability: Lawyer Sholpan Ismailova has started collecting alleged cases of unfair court rulings for submission to President Tokayev, asking for reports of serious legality and fairness violations. Green Finance & PPPs: The EBRD and Kazakhstan extended a new five-year strategic partnership focused on low-carbon development, water and wastewater infrastructure, AI/cybersecurity innovation, and expanding PPPs and green bonds, with up to €6m in grant funding. Capital Markets Connectivity: HKEX signed MoUs with AIFC and AIX to deepen stock-market links between Hong Kong and Central Asia. Energy & Geopolitics: Brent jumped above $97 after Iran’s attacks on Israel and the Strait of Hormuz disruption; meanwhile OPEC+ agreed another July quota increase (including Kazakhstan) despite doubts about real supply impact. Diplomacy: Tokayev congratulated Sweden’s King on National Day and also congratulated Armenia’s PM Nikol Pashinyan on election results. Tech & Business Links: A Hong Kong business delegation led by CE John Lee wrapped up a Kazakhstan/Uzbekistan mission, securing 96 agreements worth $1.65bn, while Cyberport signed MoUs with Astana Hub and Uzbekistan tech partners.

EU-Russia Tensions & Armenia: Russia’s Deputy PM Alexei Overchuk says the EU has “effectively” become a military-political bloc hostile to Moscow, amid Armenia’s parliamentary vote and a push for a referendum-style choice between EU and the Eurasian Economic Union. OPEC+ Oil Policy: OPEC+ agreed to raise July output by 188,000 bpd (including Kazakhstan’s +10,000 bpd) for a second straight month, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the move is widely seen as partly symbolic. Agriculture Land Shift: Kazakhstan is reshaping agricultural land structure toward oilseeds, with oilseeds now 18% of farmland (up from 11.7% three years ago). Middle Corridor & Aviation: Hong Kong’s John Lee wrapped a Kazakhstan/Uzbekistan trade trip signing 96 deals worth $1.65bn, while IATA urges Uzbekistan to adopt a unified aviation strategy and airport master plan—Central Asia’s rerouted traffic is boosting demand. Foreign Policy Framing: CICA officials argue Kazakhstan’s “multi-vector” approach is essential for influence and stability, not neutrality. Energy Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Russia continue nuclear cooperation planning for a first modern plant, with Rosatom leading. Tourism & Culture: A balloon festival in Kaskelen draws regional pilots and visitors, highlighting Kazakhstan’s growing event-driven tourism appeal.

World Cup 2026 (Groups E–H): A fresh guide spotlights potential last-tournament storylines and key players, including Spain’s Lamine Yamal, plus debutants like Curacao and Cape Verde. Foreign Policy & Security: Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi signed agreements with Russia on curbing illegal immigration and narcotics trafficking, while talks with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan focused on security threats from Afghanistan. Aviation & Trade Corridors: IATA urged Uzbekistan to adopt a unified aviation strategy and airport master plan, warning that safety and airline stability are lagging; separate reporting frames Central Asia—especially Kazakhstan—as a growing logistics hub as Middle East and Russian airspace disruptions reroute flows. Kazakhstan Governance & Justice: An Astana forum on administrative justice wrapped up, with Kyrgyz Supreme Court deputy chair Nurgul Bakirova joining discussions on balancing state and business interests. AI & Digital Economy: Kazakhstan’s “AI Leaders 2026” program graduated in Astana, bringing 800+ executives from 150+ organizations across nine countries. International Business Links: Hong Kong leader John Lee’s Central Asia trip reportedly produced nearly 100 partnership deals, including Kazakhstan-focused cooperation tied to Samruk-Kazyna and plans for KTZ’s Hong Kong listing.

Constitutional Reform Push: President Tokayev signed a package of constitutional laws to implement March’s Constitution changes, including creating the Kurultai as a supreme legislative body, setting up the People’s Council for consultative dialogue, and defining the capital’s legal and urban-planning framework. Monetary Policy Update: The National Bank cut the base rate to 17% and revised the 2026 inflation forecast to 9–11% (from 9.5–11.5%), citing slower consumer lending and a stronger exchange rate, while keeping 2027 inflation guidance at 5.5–7.5%. Local Governance & Housing: Turkistan region began handing keys to 3,564 families (with 2,292 more expected this year), with housing waiting-list registration and allocation now routed through Otbasy Bank under updated legislation. Administrative Justice: Tokayev said administrative justice is already shifting court practice, with more than half of rulings reportedly favoring citizens and businesses, and urged embedding it in the new Constitution. AI & Digital Economy: Kazakhstan hosted the “AI Leaders 2026” graduation in Astana, drawing 800+ executives from 150+ organizations across nine countries, backed by Kazakhstan’s AI ministry and partners including Stanford HAI and the OpenAI Academy. Regional Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Hong Kong moved to deepen trade and investment links, including a deal flow tied to Kazakhstan’s state assets and logistics ambitions. Energy/Science Cooperation: Kazakhstan’s Atomic Energy Agency signed an MoU with Russia’s Kurchatov Institute on peaceful nuclear research, reactor technologies, nuclear medicine, and training. Public Life: A magnitude-3.8 quake was reported in Zhetysu, with tremors felt around Almaty; officials also flagged ongoing earthquake monitoring.

State Symbols & Reform Agenda: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev marked State Symbols Day by linking the coat of arms, anthem and flag to national values, unity and independence, while stressing Kazakhstan’s 35th independence anniversary should be backed by “tangible results” amid large-scale institutional transformation. Administrative Justice & Courts: Tokayev said administrative justice has reshaped judicial practice by making government bodies prove the legality of their actions, noting that over half of rulings have recently favored citizens and businesses—aimed at breaking the stereotype of bias toward authorities. Constitutional Changes: Kazakhstan’s constitutional laws signed by Tokayev are now in force, including new rules on the President and Vice President, the Kurultai, and the Kazakhstan People’s Council. Investment Climate: Tokayev highlighted the AIFC’s English-law Court and Arbitration Center, the Investment Headquarters’ problem-solving role, and a new investor-rights protection committee as drivers of Kazakhstan’s lead in Central Asia for foreign investment. SCO Security Cooperation: At an SCO ministers’ meeting in Bishkek, Kazakhstan-linked talks featured Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi signing agreements with Russia to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking, plus discussions on counterterrorism and Afghanistan-linked threats. Diplomacy: Georgi Vodenski was appointed Bulgaria’s ambassador to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, with residence in Astana. Environment & Regional Wildlife: Central Asian states agreed to jointly preserve the snow leopard and strengthen mountain ecosystem resilience under a GEF-9 biodiversity push. Kazakhstan–Cyprus Ties: Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides visited Kazakhstan, with expanded cooperation including a new direct flight link and a business forum focused on digital public services and finance.