AGP Executive Report

Kurultai Power Shift: Kazakhstan has elected the first members of its new unicameral Kurultai, with turnout at 74.08% and the pro-presidential Adilet party winning 71.17%—a result that consolidates President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s reform agenda and leaves little room for meaningful opposition. Election Oversight & Pluralism: Observers are expected to deliver assessments soon, while reporting highlights that opposition parties and independents were excluded from the ballot. AI & Governance Push: Kazakhstan and Singapore signed new deals tied to sustainable water management, trade facilitation, and digitalization, with both sides emphasizing AI and education cooperation. Energy Pressure From CPC Disruptions: Kazakhstan is revising down its 2026 crude oil output plan after attacks and maintenance affecting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, while Kazakhstan’s Condensat refinery is set to process Russian crude and ship most fuel back to Russia. Green Transport Step: Astana unveiled CIS’s first solar-powered EV charging station, designed to scale beyond a pilot site. Regional Security & Diplomacy: Kazakhstan reaffirmed strategic partnership with Kyrgyzstan and discussed strengthening ties with international partners, including Singapore’s support for political reforms.

Kurultai Power Shift: Kazakhstan’s Central Election Commission confirmed final results for the first Kurultai under the new Constitution: President-backed Adilet won 71.17% and 110 of 145 seats, with four other parties taking the remaining mandates; experts say the scale of the majority raises delivery pressure in the new, more vertical parliamentary setup. First Kurultai Session: President Tokayev signed a decree convening the Kurultai’s first session for Aug. 28 at 11:00 a.m., marking the start of work for the 145-member legislature. Education Push: Tokayev used the annual teachers’ conference to stress that a “strong teacher is the backbone” of a progressive nation, pointing to tripled education funding and major rural school upgrades, including 49 rural schools under construction this year. U.S.-Kazakhstan Outreach: A bipartisan U.S. House delegation met Tokayev in Astana, with U.S. leaders discussing expanded economic ties, energy security, supply chains, and regional stability ahead of Tokayev’s G20-related travel. Energy Logistics: Kazakhstan’s Kondensat refinery will process Russian crude, with about 70% of output shipped back to Russia, while Kazakhstan keeps up to 30% for domestic supply. Regional Diplomacy: Tokayev also confirmed participation in three major international summits in Turkmenistan’s Avaza this fall.

Oil & Sanctions-Era Energy Deals: Kazakhstan’s Kondensat refinery in West Kazakhstan will process Russian crude by rail and send about 70% of gasoline and diesel output back to Russia, while keeping up to 30% for the domestic market, as Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said—framed as a jobs-and-investment move amid fuel pressure in Russia. Energy Security & Grid Reliability: The government also reiterated its broader push to expand power generation and gasification ahead of the heating season, while the fallout from the Aug. 14 Central Asia blackout continues to be disputed between Astana and Bishkek. Politics & Diplomacy: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met a U.S. House delegation to discuss Kazakhstan-U.S. partnership and the new unicameral Kurultai, as international messages of congratulations to the election results came from multiple foreign leaders. Elections Under Scrutiny: The EU said it took note of preliminary Kurultai election results but flagged limited political and media pluralism and OSCE-identified irregularities. International Justice: Kazakhstan extradited Azerbaijani fraud suspect Adalat Mustafayev to Azerbaijan after a prosecutor-general decision. Tech & Transport: Kazakhstan is rolling out AI tools for transport planning and route economics, aiming to strengthen its role as a regional hub. Media Cooperation: Qazaqstan TV seeks deeper content exchange with Azerbaijan’s broadcasters.

Kurultai Election Results: Kazakhstan’s Central Election Commission says turnout hit 74.08% and the new unicameral parliament (Kurultai) will be dominated by the pro-presidential Adilet party, winning 71.17% of votes and 110 of 145 mandates; Auyl (6.26%, 10 seats), Respublica (5.56%, 9), Ak Zhol (5.21%, 8) and the Nationwide Social Democratic Party (5.11%, 8) also clear the 5% threshold, while People’s Party of Kazakhstan and Baitaq miss out. Energy Security & Oil Exports: Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov says Kazakhstan will cut its 2026 oil output target to 96 million tons after CPC pipeline attacks, and backs rerouting via the Baku–Supsa pipeline as an alternative export route; he also flags Karachaganak maintenance in mid-September cutting output by about 400,000–450,000 tons. Southern Power Crunch: Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov pressed the Energy Ministry after a blackout in the south, with plans for new generation and grid upgrades including 500 kV lines and new plants. Border Modernization: Kazakhstan plans to add nearly 200 more biometric Q-Gate terminals by 2028 to speed passport control at checkpoints. Health Spending: Cancer screening and treatment capacity are expanding, including more PET/CT and proton therapy access. Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Pakistan reaffirmed plans to deepen cooperation after high-level contacts. Politics & Power: Analysts frame the Kurultai vote as a major test of the new constitutional order and party system.

Kurultai Election Results: Kazakhstan’s Central Election Commission says the first unicameral Kurultai vote delivered a landslide for the pro-government Adilet Party, winning 71.17% (about 9.35m votes; 74.08% turnout). Auyl took 6.26%, while Nationwide Social Democratic Party, Respublica and Aq Jol cleared the 5% threshold; final results are due within 10 days. Election Integrity Debate: OSCE observers criticized the poll for lacking genuine political opposition and said Adilet had an “undue advantage,” with concerns raised over political pluralism and the separation of state and party. Diplomatic Ripples: Tokayev’s win drew congratulations and calls for deeper ties, including from Armenia’s Pashinyan (plus plans for Tokayev’s October visit), Serbia’s Vučić, and Turkey’s TURKPA observers praising access to voting. Foreign Ministry Staffing: Kazakhstan named Askar Zhappar as Chief of Staff at the Foreign Ministry, signaling continued institutional reshuffling after constitutional changes. Regional Connectivity: Uzbekistan reported SCO freight traffic up 40% over five years to 33.5m tonnes in 2025, with Kazakhstan accounting for 32% of the volume.

Kurultai Election Results: Kazakhstan’s first election to the new one-chamber Kurultai delivered a landslide for the pro-government Adilet Party, winning 71.17% in preliminary Central Election Commission results. Parliament Setup: The Kurultai will have 145 seats under the July 1 Constitution, with deputies elected via nationwide party lists and a 5% threshold. Vote Share & Turnout: Turnout hit 74.08% (9,351,539 of 12,623,289 registered voters). Auyl took 6.26%, Respublica 5.56%, Ak Zhol 5.21%, and the Nationwide Social Democratic Party 5.11%; People’s Party (3.11%) and Baytaq Green (1.07%) fell short, while “against all” drew 2.51%. Election Oversight: CIS observers said the vote was fair, competitive and open; TURKPA, OTS and SCO missions also reported orderly polling and no serious violations. Digital & AI Push: In parallel, Kazakhstan’s government highlighted transport digitalization plans and AI tools, while officials framed 2026 as a Year of Digitalization and Artificial Intelligence. Central Bank Leadership: Timur Suleimenov was reappointed as National Bank Governor. Human Rights Appointments: Kazakhstan reappointed its Human Rights Ombudsman. Aviation Decarbonization: KBR won a contract to support Kazakhstan’s first sustainable aviation fuel plant using PureSAF technology.

Snap Parliamentary Vote Under New Constitution: Kazakhstan held its first elections for the 145-seat unicameral Kurultai, with turnout reaching 74.19% by 8:00 p.m. as counting began; the CEC said 9,352,151 voters cast ballots. Pro-Presidential Sweep: Exit polls published by state-linked outlets put the newly formed Adilet party at about 70–72% of the vote, with four other parties clearing the 5% seat threshold (Auyl ~6.2–6.4%, Respublica ~5.2–5.5%, OSDP ~5.0–5.2%, Ak Zhol ~5.1–5.4%), while the People’s Party and Baytaq fell short. Regional Turnout Divide: Highest participation was reported in Turkistan (92.16%) and Kyzylorda (90.75%), while Almaty city lagged at 43.23% and Astana at 51.67%. Political Next Steps: President Tokayev said a vice president is expected to be appointed within 7–10 days, and the government would resign after the vote. Diplomatic Voting & Observers: Polling abroad continued at Kazakhstan missions; international observers highlighted accessibility and the vote’s role in the new constitutional order. Culture & Economy: A Kanye West concert in Almaty reportedly drew 31,000 spectators and generated about $11 million, boosting hotel demand to nearly 98% around the show dates.

Kurultai Vote Update: Kazakhstan’s first elections for the new unicameral Qurultai are underway, with the CEC reporting 6,696,002 ballots issued nationwide by 14:00 (53.12% turnout on voter lists), after polling opened at 7:00 and some sites abroad earlier; Kyzylorda leads at 64.22% while Almaty lags at 30.36%. Election Logistics Abroad: Voting continues at Kazakhstan’s diplomatic missions, including Brussels and London, plus polling in Moscow, and overseas stations in dozens of countries; turnout figures are being updated on schedule. Power-Shifting Politics: The snap vote follows March constitutional changes that abolished the Senate and set a 145-seat Kurultai elected via party lists, with seven state-approved parties competing and critics warning it will cement President Tokayev’s grip. Digital State Push: Tokayev used the campaign moment to stress the next phase of digitalization and AI “for people,” framing smartphones as tools for work and income. International Engagement: The process is being watched by 777 foreign observers, while domestic monitoring faces tighter rules.

Kurultai Election Countdown: Kazakhstan holds its first elections for the new 145-seat unicameral Kurultai on Aug. 23, with 545 candidates from seven parties competing under the post–July 1 constitutional shift; President Tokayev urged voters to participate as the campaign is framed as open and reform-focused. Election Readiness & Oversight: The Central Election Commission says polling stations are fully prepared, with accessibility corners, guarded ballots, and thousands of training seminars for election staff, while international observers are expected at voting sites. Political Space Under Pressure: A separate report highlights how independent groups struggle to register, with authorities citing alleged signature problems and minors/deceased entries—critics call it politically motivated. Foreign Policy Messaging: Deputy Foreign Minister Arman Issetov told visiting journalists that domestic reform should be seen alongside regional instability, investment competition, and the need for stability. Sovereign Credit Boost: S&P upgraded Kazakhstan’s sovereign ratings to BBB/A-2 with a stable outlook, citing resilient growth and external buffers. Trade & Transit Push: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan discussed expanding the Trans-Caspian route and non-resource exports as they align on industrial cooperation ahead of the Kurultai vote.

Qurultay Election Countdown: Kazakhstan has entered a “day of silence” ahead of the Aug. 23 Qurultay vote, with campaigning and new media/poll publications barred; fines range from 15 to 35 MCI depending on the offender. Foreign Election Watch: Kazakhstan says polling stations are being suspended in three countries ahead of the vote, while foreign observers from dozens of countries are accredited and CEC checks readiness nationwide. Water & Energy Push: The government reports record 677 billion tenge investment in water management (2024-25), plus a renewable buildout to 3.8 GW across 172 facilities and plans to add more capacity in 2026. Transport & Connectivity: Arkalyk resumes regular flights after a 30-year gap, and Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan discuss expanding the Trans-Caspian route and non-resource exports. Regional Diplomacy: Moldova and Kazakhstan hold talks on joint projects, including electoral cooperation. Border Commerce Boom: Horgos sees summer surges at the China-Kazakhstan border center, with daily visitors topping 30,000 and entries exceeding 5 million this year.

Kurultai Election Countdown: Kazakhstan is entering a “day of silence” ahead of Aug. 23 Qurultay elections, with campaigning and poll publication rules tightening, while the CEC says polling stations are ready and overseas voting is underway. Presidential Messaging: President Tokayev calls the first elections to the new unicameral Kurultay a historic turning point tied to the People’s Constitution, urging especially youth participation. Election Logistics Abroad: Kazakhstan will open polling stations at its diplomatic missions in Türkiye (Ankara, Istanbul, Antalya, Izmir) for nearly 1,900 voters, with voting set for 07:00–20:00 local time. International Observation: Kazakhstan is hosting election observers, including missions from the Organization of Turkic States and TURKPA, and discussing electoral process modernization with Moldova’s election authorities. Foreign Policy & Culture: Kazakhstan and Moldova discuss cooperation in energy, transport, medical equipment and investment; Kazakhstan also proposes U.S. “Culture Days” and expands Smithsonian-linked cultural ties. Security & Regional Context: Germany says it is investigating a Berlin-area weapons cache it believes may have been intended for assassinations linked to Russian intelligence, while Ukraine alleges a secret Russian biolab site—claims Russia has not commented on.

Snap Election Watch: Kazakhstan’s Prosecutor General’s Office says eight cases of electoral-law violations were logged ahead of the Aug. 23 vote, including illegal polls and campaigning during the prohibited period, with seven people and one legal entity held administratively liable. International Observation: An Azerbaijani CEC delegation has arrived in Kazakhstan to monitor the snap parliamentary elections and will also attend an OTS election-administration platform meeting in Astana. Political Reform & Control: Bloomberg reports Kazakhstan will elect a new unicameral parliament as President Tokayev continues reshaping the political system, leaving open the possibility of extending his rule beyond 2029. Cybersecurity: Bitdefender warns of a China-nexus-linked cyberespionage campaign (“SilkParasite”) targeting Central Asian government bodies, including Kazakhstan, using Google Drive-based command-and-control. Aviation & Trade Links: Singapore’s Changi Airport Group expressed interest in Kazakhstan’s planned second Astana airport, while Cathay Pacific announced direct Almaty–Hong Kong flights starting Jan. 9, 2027. Regional Security Drill: Special forces teams from Belarus, Kazakhstan and others will compete in Russia’s Vyzov 7 event in Yekaterinburg Aug. 24–30.

Kurultai Election Prep: Kazakhstan’s MFA met OTS and TURKPA observer missions to brief election preparations and reaffirm an open, transparent process, while discussing cooperation within regional frameworks. Media Freedom Under Pressure: Rights groups say independent journalists face “unprecedented” intimidation ahead of Aug. 23 polls, including prison sentences and professional bans tied to election-period scrutiny. Journalist Sentencing: RSF reports KazTAG editor-in-chief Amir Kasenov received restriction of liberty and a five-year ban from journalism after a case framed as “false information,” with an appeal planned. Parliament Vote Dynamics: A televised final debate showed parties competing mainly on economic growth and living standards, but analysts warn of voter fatigue and limited opposition. Critical Minerals & Industry: President Tokayev urged faster development of critical-material processing and domestic expertise, ordering steps to expand exploration and remove barriers. Transport & Trade: Kazakhstan plans the Moyynty–Kyzylzhar rail line to cut Middle Corridor distance and ease congestion, but Caspian port transfers remain a key bottleneck. Energy Reliability: A regional blackout highlighted Central Asia’s power-system strain and the need for new electricity infrastructure—an opening for external partners. Currency Watch: The tenge strengthened sharply as foreign investors increased holdings of government debt despite oil-export disruptions.

Snap Election Watch: Kazakhstan votes Sunday in a snap parliamentary election expected to tighten President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s control after constitutional changes extend his rule, with the renamed ruling party widely expected to dominate. Foreign Policy Update: Tokayev’s revised Foreign Policy Concept (2020–2030) keeps Kazakhstan’s “balanced” course but puts more weight on protecting citizens and businesses abroad. AI in Healthcare: Astana is expanding AI-assisted diagnostics, including radiology automation and faster stroke detection, alongside a new center for online consultations. AI Education Push: Kazakhstan plans to enroll the first cohort at its new AI research university in 2026–27 and roll AI tools into schools and rural classrooms. Energy & Utilities Spending: The government is channeling major funds into power and heating utilities modernization, aiming to cut network wear and breakdowns. Oil Export Pressure: Disruptions and shifting Russian port capacity are forcing Kazakhstan to reroute crude, exposing how hard it is to diversify away from Russia. Diplomacy on the Move: Kazakhstan continues credentialing and ambassadorial diplomacy, including Vietnam’s new envoy starting work in Astana.

Qurultay Campaign Watch: Seven party leaders wrapped up final debates on 24KZ TV as Kazakhstan heads to the Aug. 23 Qurultay vote, with 145 deputies set to be elected and foreign observers accredited. Election Oversight: The CEC says 777 foreign observers from 42 countries and 13 international organizations will monitor the Kurultai election, including CIS and OSCE-linked missions. Media Crackdown: CPJ warns of an escalating pre-election press crackdown after Kazakhstan sentenced independent journalist Gulnara Bazhkenova (Orda) to eight years, adding a long media ban. Education Rules: Kazakhstan will bar pupils from using smartphones during lessons, allowing phones only when required by the curriculum and setting local storage rules. Defense & Tech: Kazakhstan tested domestic UAVs and UGVs at SHAIQAS-2026, while a robotics forum in Astana showcased humanoid robots and “Embodied AI” applications. Cybersecurity: A new SilkParasite espionage campaign is reported targeting Central Asian government bodies, including Kazakhstan, using multiple RAT families. International Diplomacy: Moldova’s ambassador presented credentials to President Tokayev, and Kazakhstan discussed deeper cooperation with UN Volunteers. Security & Economy: Kazakhstan’s grain trade faces wider Black Sea disruption as shipping attacks reportedly shut down most export capacity, pushing prices up.

Kurultai Election Watch: Kazakhstan’s first Kurultai under the new Constitution is set for Aug. 23, with 145 seats elected for five years via proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency; parties need at least 5% to enter, and the CEC says women, youth and people with disabilities make up 43.9% of registered candidates. International Observation: Azerbaijani MPs will travel to Kazakhstan Aug. 20–25 to observe the Kurultai vote, inspecting polling stations and monitoring turnout as part of CIS IPA, OSCE PA and Turkic States missions. AI & Governance: Kazakhstan is navigating a growing U.S.-China AI split after joining the Pax Silica initiative and later the Beijing-backed WAICO, with Washington reportedly preparing warnings that participation in competing AI frameworks may be incompatible. Waste-to-Energy Push: Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov met Hunan Junxin on Almaty’s 145bn tenge waste-to-energy project, aimed at processing 2,000 tons of waste daily, generating 60 MW, cutting CO₂ by 200,000 tons annually, and freeing landfill space—plus plans for similar plants in other cities. Trade Snapshot: Kazakhstan’s Jan–Jun foreign trade strengthened, with exports up 8.6% to $40.3bn and non-resource/processed exports rising 17.6%, outpacing import growth. Regional Water Security: Kazakhstan says North Aral Sea inflows are steady during the growing season and highlights continued transboundary water cooperation, including a signed agreement with Uzbekistan. Press Freedom Case: Almaty’s Bostandyk District Court sentenced former Orda.kz editor-in-chief Gulnara Bazhkenova to eight years and banned her from journalism and public activity for five years, a move rights groups say pressures independent media.