AGP Executive Report

Fuel Smuggling Crackdown: Kazakhstan has deployed 59 border checkpoints with Russia and is inspecting every vehicle crossing, citing 255 cases of illegally added extra fuel tanks since the start of the year and nearly 600 blocked smuggling attempts. Energy Security & Gas Projects: Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov ordered tighter weekly monitoring of gas processing and infrastructure build-outs tied to Kashagan and Karachaganak, plus expanded gasification targets, linking delivery speed to investment appeal and living standards. Water Governance: The government says a National Water Resources Information System is now live, covering thousands of rivers, lakes, wells and hydraulic structures, while regional financing delays are being flagged for correction. Constitutional/Legal-Political Context: Kazakhstan’s MFA rejected claims that its territory was used for drone launches into Russia, calling the reports unfounded and urging reliance on verified facts. Court & Energy Dispute: The AIFC Court revoked an enforcement order over Naftogaz’s $1.4bn arbitration claim against Gazprom, citing lack of jurisdiction, though Naftogaz says it will keep pursuing enforcement in Kazakhstan. International Ties: President Tokayev met US Senator Steve Daines, stressing implementation of bilateral agreements and support for legislative initiatives, while Kazakhstan and Slovenia also discussed deepening inter-parliamentary dialogue and trade. Transport & Digitalization: Kazakhstan and Presight signed a term sheet to assess an AI-enabled national transport intelligence platform aimed at improving road safety and oversight. Culture & Media: Jackie Chan’s new film “Armor of God: Ultimatum” begins filming in Almaty, with production scheduled for July–October 2026.

Tokayev–US Ties: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met U.S. Senator Steve Daines in Astana, praising expanding trade and investment cooperation and highlighting implementation of bilateral agreements, with Tokayev also flagging his planned G20 trip to Miami. Digital Governance: Kazakhstan signed a decree to ease stablecoin cross-border payments and offer income-tax relief for retail crypto traders, while also allowing miners to use unneeded gas for power—aimed at pulling crypto business into a clearer, regulated framework. Tech for Healthcare: Astana Hub launched MedHub HAQ, a nonprofit medical AI initiative to accelerate development using anonymized data under the upcoming Digital Code, including an accelerator for medtech startups. Public Services: The Hospital Authority updated its HA Go app, adding one-click applications for medical fee waivers and tools to request medical reports from home. Legal/Finance: Kazakhstan’s AIFC court overturned an earlier decision allowing enforcement of a roughly $1.4bn Gazprom-related award in favor of Naftogaz, citing jurisdiction limits. Security & Borders: Kazakhstan tightened fuel-smuggling controls, including a stricter one-entry-per-day rule for vehicles from neighboring countries and targeted checks for extra fuel tanks. International Cooperation: Kazakhstan’s ambassador to Sri Lanka, Sergey Viktorov, met Sri Lanka’s defence leadership to discuss deeper defence and security cooperation, training exchanges, and HADR capacity building. Transport Update: Astana airport reopened the main entrance for passenger pick-up/drop-off at Terminal T2 after repairs. Sports Diplomacy: The UAE jiu-jitsu national team, sponsored by Mubadala, departed for Almaty to compete in Asian youth and adult championships.

Crypto Regulation Push: Kazakhstan President Tokayev signed a decree to expand crypto rules, easing stablecoin cross-border payments, offering income-tax relief for retail traders, and allowing miners to burn unneeded gas—aimed at pulling crypto activity into a regulated market. Constitutional Politics: Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Court ruled Tokayev’s current term won’t count under the new constitution, clearing the legal path for him to seek another presidential term. Fuel Border Crackdown: Kazakhstan introduced a one-entry-per-day limit for vehicles from neighboring states to curb “gray” fuel exports amid Russia’s diesel and gasoline shortages after drone strikes. Cybersecurity Threat: Kaspersky reported a new spear-phishing campaign in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Brazil using the Armored Likho group and BusySnake malware targeting government and power-sector organizations. Transport Intelligence Deal: Presight signed a term sheet with Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport to explore a national operational intelligence platform using sovereign AI for monitoring and smarter transport management. Regional Mobility: Asman Airlines resumed seasonal Almaty–Tamchy direct flights twice weekly starting July 10. International Spotlight: Kazakhstan’s Aral Geopark is undergoing assessment for potential UNESCO Global Geopark status, with a mission running July 6–13.

Constitutional Court Ruling: Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Court says President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev can run for another term under the new constitution, effectively “resetting” the term count and raising questions about the political timetable. Government Oversight: The Supreme Audit Chamber reported 128 billion tenge recovered in H1 2026 and 13 major audits covering 5.8 trillion tenge, with new rules on forecasting and tighter treasury control. Transport Digitalization: Presight and the Transport Ministry signed a term sheet to build a national transport operational intelligence platform using sovereign AI for monitoring, safety and performance. Energy Security & Gas Expansion: The Energy Ministry says Kazakhstan doesn’t expect fuel shortages despite Russia’s issues; meanwhile, plans target commercial gas output rising to 4.5 bcm by 2030 and gasification reaching 80% by 2035, alongside new pipeline and processing timelines. Regional Connectivity: Kazakhstan will build a logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port under a 27-year deal, aiming to boost transit via the North–South corridor. Politics & Appointments: Berik Assylov was re-appointed Prosecutor General, and Kazakhstan’s People’s Party approved 72 Qurultay candidates. Media & Language: Euronews launches Kazakh-language broadcasting, with Astana calling it a step in Kazakhstan’s information modernization.

Constitutional Court Ruling: Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Court ruled that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev can seek another seven-year term after the 2026 constitution “reset” term limits, saying prior time under the 1995 constitution doesn’t count—clearing the legal path for a new run when his term ends in 2029. Regional Energy Security: Kazakhstan is considering supplying gasoline to Kyrgyzstan after receiving a formal request, as Central Asia grapples with fuel shortages and tighter domestic controls. Trade & Connectivity: Kazakhstan is planning a private-investment terminal at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port to expand export routes from Aktau via rail through Turkmenistan, aiming at access to India, the Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia. Digital Push: Kazakhstan and the UN’s ITU agreed to set up an ITU Acceleration Centre in Kazakhstan to build AI expertise, GovTech adoption and digital skills across Central Asia. Industry Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s prime minister chaired an EDB forum in Almaty that drew 700 delegates and approved a new EDB development strategy for 2027–2031 focused on transport, logistics and high-value industries.

OPEC+ Energy Policy: OPEC+ agreed to a modest August oil output increase of 188,000 barrels per day, with Kazakhstan among the seven producers raising supply as Brent eases after an interim US-Iran deal that improved Strait of Hormuz shipping conditions. Constitutional Reform & Investment Climate: Kazakhstan’s new Constitution is being framed by experts as a foundation for a more “rules-based” economy, with stronger protection for private property and investor rights, plus special legal regimes for accelerated development cities to boost innovation and growth. Digital Governance & UN AI Talks: Kazakhstan’s AI and digital development push took center stage at a UN AI governance summit in Geneva, where a government delegation highlighted progress toward an “AI-native nation,” digitized public services, and proposed regional cooperation via an Almaty-based digital solutions center. National Guard Outreach: Kazakhstan’s National Guard launched a children’s animation project mixing military-patriotic education with safety culture, using animal-themed mascots from regional emblems to teach civic values and safe behavior. Cybersecurity: A Kaspersky report says an APT group dubbed “Armored Likho” has targeted government and critical infrastructure, including victims in Kazakhstan, using spear-phishing and malware-laced documents. Aviation & Industry: COMAC showcased a C909 medical aircraft in Kazakhstan, signaling a push for specialized aircraft exports beyond passenger jets.

Fuel Export Crackdown: Kazakhstan tightened border controls to stop illegal gasoline and fuel exports, blocking 61 smuggling attempts in two days and flagging suspicious activity at gas stations and mini-refineries. EAEU Industrial Ties: At Innoprom-2026 in Yekaterinburg, Kazakhstan’s PM said Astana and Moscow have delivered 122 of 177 joint industrial projects worth $22.4bn, with cooperation spanning machinery, chemicals and construction materials. Digital Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s Deputy PM met Pakistan’s IT minister during Geneva Digital Week to align on shared digital transformation goals. Energy Market Watch: Oil prices slipped after OPEC+ approved an August output increase of 188,000 bpd, with Kazakhstan listed among the producers. Cultural State Branding: Kazakhstan’s main Astana mosque was officially renamed “Nursultan Mosque” ahead of Capital City Day, tying the move to Nazarbayev’s legacy. Cyber Security Alert: Kaspersky reported a new APT, Armored Likho, targeting government and electric power organizations, including in Kazakhstan.

Tokayev on Nazarbayev’s legacy: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev congratulated Nursultan Nazarbayev on his birthday, stressing Nazarbayev’s role in founding modern statehood and highlighting the capital’s move to Astana as a driver of national development. Capital City Day & constitutional shift: Tokayev also extended Capital City Day greetings, tying Astana’s “smart city” governance and new public spaces to the People’s Constitution entering into force and the new constitutional law on Astana’s status. Qurultay candidate lists: The Auyl Party approved 69 candidates for Qurultay elections, with a platform focused on regional development priorities; delegates also set up a 29-member Political Council. Astana spotlight: A Qazinform-style explainer lists Astana’s standout facts, from its steppe setting and rapid growth to its architecture and green-belt vision. OPEC+ and Kazakhstan in energy markets: OPEC+ agreed to raise August oil output quotas by 188,000 bpd, including Kazakhstan, while warning future increases could be paused or reversed as Strait of Hormuz recovery remains uneven. Judicial tradition explained: A feature traces how Kazakh biys historically settled disputes through customary law and public trust, linking tradition to today’s justice culture. EU partnership narrative: A commentary argues Kazakhstan-EU ties are shifting from transit to strategic partnership, positioning Kazakhstan as a supply, logistics, aviation, and investment platform for Europe.

OPEC+ Energy Policy: OPEC+ agreed to raise oil output quotas by 188,000 barrels per day for August, with Kazakhstan among the seven members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman), as the group continues unwinding cuts while watching the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and market conditions. Fuel Smuggling Crackdown: Kazakhstan says 61 attempts to illegally export fuel were stopped in two days, with mobile border patrols uncovering hidden tanks and canisters; authorities also cite 593 prevented cases since the start of the year and plan to extend the gasoline/diesel export ban. Constitution & Elections: Kazakhstan’s new Constitution has taken effect, setting up a political transition that includes a smaller parliament and a Kurultay vote in August; Council of Europe parliamentarians backed the reforms ahead of the election timeline. Kurultay Party Prep: Ak Zhol approved 63 candidates for Qurultay elections, while other party congress activity continues to shape the candidate lists. Regional Connectivity: A new seasonal air route links Issyk-Kul (Tamchy) and Astana twice weekly through Aug. 31, aiming to boost tourism and business ties between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Investment & Development: Kazakhstan and the Islamic Development Bank Group marked a cooperation milestone as IsDB’s chairman joined the Foreign Investors’ Council in Astana, with a focus on AI and digital sovereignty.

Constitution & Elections: Kazakhstan’s new Constitution has taken effect, setting up a political transition that includes a smaller Parliament and a snap Qurultay election date of Aug. 23. Energy & Trade Controls: The government says mobile patrol groups are checking border highways around the clock to curb illegal fuel exports; it also plans to extend the gasoline/diesel export ban through May 2027. Culture as Policy: President Tokayev used National Dombra Day to link the instrument to national unity and to the new Constitution’s focus on heritage, as nationwide events draw millions. Foreign Policy: Tokayev congratulated Algeria on Independence Day and also sent a message to Trump on the U.S. 250th anniversary, highlighting the expanded strategic partnership. Regional Connectivity: Seasonal direct flights launched between Issyk-Kul (Tamchy) and Astana, with twice-weekly service until end-August. Economy & Investment: Kazakhstan and India moved to expand pharmaceutical cooperation, including plans for joint projects and direct flights. Security & Cyber: A new cyber-espionage campaign, “Armored Likho,” is reported targeting government and power-sector organizations in Kazakhstan and elsewhere. Development Finance: EBRD leadership reiterated that Kazakhstan’s edge depends on scaling mineral processing, not just extraction.

Critical Minerals Strategy: EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso said Kazakhstan’s long-term edge in critical raw materials depends on scaling domestic processing, backed by better transparency on geology data and a stable, predictable regulatory framework. Constitution & Governance: A Turkish expert argued Kazakhstan’s new Constitution strengthens social legitimacy and long-term stability, boosting human rights, rule of law, gender equality, secular governance, and even digital guarantees, alongside the shift to a Qurultay-style parliament. Qurultay Elections Setup: The Adilet Party said it is ready for Qurultay elections, as Kazakhstan’s CEC approved the election calendar for Aug. 23, 2026, with preparations already underway. Digital & Regional Connectivity: Kazakhstan showcased digital initiatives in Beijing under a Central Asia–China forum, highlighting automation in public services and presenting projects like the Ekibastuz Data Center Valley. Foreign Policy Milestone: Tokayev congratulated Donald Trump on the U.S. 250th Independence Anniversary, reaffirming Kazakhstan’s readiness to deepen the expanded strategic partnership. Security & Cyber Risk: Kaspersky named a new APT actor, Armored Likho, targeting government and power sectors in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Brazil, including a Python-based infostealer dubbed BusySnake. Culture & Identity: National Dombra Day drew plans for 2+ million participants nationwide, with Tokayev calling the instrument a brand for Kazakh identity worldwide.

U.S.-Kazakhstan Ties: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev congratulated Donald Trump on U.S. Independence Day, reaffirming Kazakhstan’s intent to deepen the expanded strategic partnership. Foreign Investment & Digital State: Tokayev told the Foreign Investors Council that Kazakhstan will keep attracting investment despite a tough external environment, highlighting AI and digitalization as key growth levers and pointing to GDP above $300bn and FDI over $150bn. Elections & Parties: The Adilet Party says it is ready for Qurultay elections under the new Constitution, after the CEC cleared seven parties to participate. Regional Connectivity & Trade: A new analysis argues the Iran-US war has boosted the Middle Corridor’s importance, with Azerbaijan’s Caspian crossing and the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars rail link central to the route. Caspian Water Security: Japan pledged a ¥465m ($3m) grant via UNDP to help Kazakhstan tackle Caspian Sea water decline. Weather & Civil Protection: Prime Minister Bektenov ordered enhanced flood preparedness as heavy rain is forecast, with emergency forces and evacuation plans tightened. Business & Logistics: AD Ports Group CEO Captain Mohamed Juma Al Shamisi received Kazakhstan’s Order of Friendship for UAE-Kazakhstan supply chain cooperation. Women’s Entrepreneurship Research: Astana announced the G-Index Institute to build analytics for women-led entrepreneurship policy.

Kurultai Elections Setup: The Adilet Party says it is ready for the Qurultay vote after the CEC approved seven parties for the election lists, framing the campaign as a test of the new Constitution and “fair, open, competitive” politics. Constitutional Transition: Kazakhstan’s new Constitution took effect July 1, with Kurultai elections set for Aug. 23 and a new candidate inclusion rule requiring 30% from combined women, youth, and people with disabilities categories. Flood Preparedness: Prime Minister Bektenov ordered enhanced readiness across regions as heavy rain is forecast, including evacuation planning and stricter control of mudflow-prone areas. Digital & AI Push: Government for Citizens opened an “Smart Point” service model in Astana using AI and self-service terminals, while Kaspi introduced “Kasper,” an AI assistant for shopping. Crypto Megacity: Solana-linked partners backed Kazakhstan’s $6bn Alatau City plan, aiming to blend blockchain, AI, and everyday crypto payments. Foreign Policy & Iran: Kazakh FM Kosherbayev attended mourning ceremonies for Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, meeting Iranian leaders and discussing bilateral cooperation. Energy & Trade Controls: Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry drafted an extension of the gasoline export ban through May 2027, with public discussion running until July 21. EU Outreach: The EU ambassador said Tokayev’s Brussels visit reinforced cooperation on transport, critical raw materials, digitalization, trade, education, and people-to-people ties. Gold & Finance: The World Gold Council reported Kazakhstan bought 7 tonnes of gold in May, adding to year-to-date accumulation.

Constitution & Governance: President Tokayev said Kazakhstan’s new Constitution, effective July 1, strengthens investor rights and stability, and announced a National Digital Investment Platform plus an Investment Board for faster decisions. Investor Protection: The Prosecutor General’s Office launched an expert council on protecting investors, positioning prosecutors as an “investment ombudsman” to build trust between state and business. Energy & Infrastructure: Kazakhstan will develop a roadmap to reach 80% gasification, with current access at 13.1 million people and plans to extend coverage to 36,000 more residents in 2026. Foreign Policy & Investment: Tokayev met Islamic Development Bank President Al-Jasser, highlighting $4.2bn financed so far and discussing a 2027–2032 partnership strategy; he also met US Chamber of Commerce senior vice president Hush Choksi on critical minerals, AI, transport and finance. Digital Economy: Tokayev backed VEON’s Digital Qazaqstan push, including Direct to Cell coverage planned for August 2026 and plans to double VEON’s Kazakhstan operations with an extra $1bn investment. Trade & Compliance: The US USTR scheduled forced-labour hearings (July 7–9) involving Kazakhstan among other countries. Environment: Taza Qazaqstan progress was reviewed: over 1 million trees planted since January, with millions participating in cleanups and waste recycling.

Digital Investment Push: President Tokayev met VEON leadership and urged AI-driven growth, while VEON pledged an extra $1bn investment and plans to double its Kazakhstan operations, including potential Astana data-center work. Finance & Reform: Tokayev also met EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso, highlighting 30 years of EBRD support (11bn euros across 354 projects) and welcoming a new framework partnership to back Kazakhstan’s reform agenda. Nuclear Cooperation: Tokayev and Cameco CEO discussed uranium and nuclear fuel-cycle cooperation, with both sides pointing to joint projects. US Business Outreach: Tokayev met a senior US Chamber of Commerce executive, signaling expanded ties on critical minerals, energy, digital infrastructure, AI, transport, and financial services. Maritime & Transit: AD Ports Group reaffirmed long-term interest in Kazakhstan, with talks focused on Caspian transit and Middle Corridor cargo flows, including port terminals. Crypto Regulation: Kazakhstan’s central bank issued its first license for crypto exchange operations under updated digital-asset rules, allowing Pax Finance to trade, store, and swap crypto nationwide. SME & Women’s Role: At a Global Businesswomen Council session, officials said women lead nearly half of Kazakhstan’s SMEs and that the country ranks among the top globally for teacher recognition, linking education and human capital to empowerment. Sports & Culture: Astana was named host of the World Esports Championship 2027. Law & Public Services: Kazakhstan advanced legislation on psychological activities to protect the public from unqualified practitioners.

Kurultai Election Setup: Kazakhstan’s CEC approved the Aug. 23 Kurultai election calendar and confirmed seven parties can participate, with campaigning running July 23–Aug. 22 and a day of silence on Aug. 22; the AMANAT party declined to take part. Constitution Rollout & Amnesty: The new Constitution took effect July 1, and President Tokayev signed an amnesty law tied to its adoption. Presidential Aviation Oversight: Tokayev met Air Astana CEO Ibrahim Canliel, discussing fleet expansion plans (including Boeing 787 deliveries in 2026–27) and pushing for better service and more direct links to the USA and Japan. EBRD Support for SMEs: The EBRD backed KMF Bank with up to $50m to expand lending to private MSMEs and women-led businesses, alongside advisory and training. Regional Energy Pressure: Kyrgyzstan asked Kazakhstan and other neighbors for help securing stable fuel supplies as Russia faces shortages after Ukraine-linked strikes. Trade & Connectivity Moves: Indonesia and Kazakhstan agreed to pursue a bilateral trade corridor after ratifying the Indonesia–EAEU free trade deal, while Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan signed a treaty to deepen regional cooperation. Economic Signals: Service inflation in Kazakhstan accelerated in June for the first time in ten months, even as overall inflation continued to slow.